Conflicts, Energy Shocks Threaten Global Hunger Gains, IFAD Warns

ROME_Conflicts, disruptions to global energy markets and climate-related shocks could reverse recent progress in reducing world hunger, the head of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) warned, as a new United Nations report projected that more than 500 million people may still face chronic hunger by 2030.

The report, released on Tuesday, found that global hunger has eased modestly in recent years but remains at a critically high level. It identified Africa as the region expected to shoulder the largest share of future food insecurity.

In an interview with The Associated Press on July 10, IFAD President Alvaro Lario said ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions to shipping routes and energy supplies, including uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war, could leave an additional 9 million to 18 million people facing hunger if those shocks continue.

“We are in a current era where we have the highest number of conflicts and are still increasing,” Lario said. “Whenever there is a conflict, also hunger, displacement, refugees increase.”

Lario said armed conflicts remain one of the biggest barriers to improving global food security. Wars and geopolitical tensions disrupt shipping, energy supplies and agricultural inputs, increasing production costs across food systems already under pressure from inflation.

He said hunger and conflict often reinforce one another, creating a cycle that becomes increasingly difficult to break without greater political stability and sustained investment.

According to Lario, higher energy prices have already increased the cost of fertilizers and agricultural production. Small-scale farmers are particularly vulnerable because many depend on diesel fuel to irrigate fields, harvest crops and transport produce to markets, with rising fuel prices ultimately contributing to higher food costs.

The report also highlighted affordability as a growing challenge. Although global food production continues to increase, roughly one-third of the world’s population cannot afford a healthy diet. In low-income countries, that proportion rises to about 77%, Lario said.

“The biggest challenge is no longer simply producing enough food, but making healthy diets affordable,” he said.

Climate change is adding further strain to agricultural systems, with floods, prolonged droughts and extreme heat increasingly disrupting farming and rural livelihoods around the world.

Lario urged governments to prioritize resilience and climate adaptation before disasters occur rather than relying primarily on emergency responses after crises develop.

“This is just becoming the new normal,” he said. “We are seeing floods in many countries. We’re still seeing droughts that have been expanding for four or five years.”

IFAD is expanding investment in climate adaptation initiatives designed to help rural communities cope with increasingly frequent extreme weather events, he said, emphasizing the need to support smallholder farmers who produce a significant share of the world’s food.

The United Nations report identified Africa as the world’s most pressing food security challenge. For the first time, the continent has overtaken Asia as the region with the largest number of hungry people, with nearly 60% of the world’s chronically undernourished population projected to live there by 2030.

Lario attributed the trend to rapid population growth and slower economic development compared with parts of Asia. He called for increased investment in agriculture, infrastructure and food systems, noting that African countries currently import nearly $100 billion worth of food annually.

He said stronger domestic production, improved storage capacity, more efficient distribution systems and expanded regional trade would be essential to strengthening food security as conflicts, energy market disruptions and climate extremes continue to threaten global progress.